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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister remarked, adding that if our interview proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into his official residence for a follow-up chat next year.

There is never truly downtime for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his big political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

With the new year begins, the Prime Minister appears to have had something of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly appeared to have put him in improved morale than at the saggy end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they think his fortunes are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the PM is that numerous of his fellow MPs think he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and oust him this year.

But Sir Keir was having none of it when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he stated he'd be "evaluated at the next election", arguing nobody would remove his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the battle of our generation and I intend to be at the forefront," he said.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – in part. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no situation under which he would walk away, should one of his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be disastrous for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He sought to account for his low poll ratings by saying the voters was naturally impatient for things to improve. He sought to persuade me, and the nation, that this year would be different.

The economic situation would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he said, when plans the government implemented during their first choppy year began to take effect.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, although he did not set a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His central point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a while – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of facing calls from various quarters for a bolder approach, with increased political vision, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in this much political peril, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its own way.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have erred, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister told me that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing evident political dangers as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be comfortable with these events seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "simply do not have the full picture at the moment".

Some wanted him to criticise the action prior to the interview. And the government is likely to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has consistently been bubbling desire in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's pursuing that, but his new specific commitment to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely elicit protests that he is going back on his vow never to try to reverse the decisions that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will delight some on his backbenches, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to