Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
